Breakeven DFS: Becoming the Roulette Wheel

Posted on by dasdad

Ok, so now that we’re playing a high volume of games against a diverse set of opponents, how many of these games do we actually need to win in order to show a profit, Dolla? That’s why we’re here after all.

Well, let’s see here…please hold.

There we go. It turns out we need to win 55.5% of our games to break-even. That means we need to exceed that level of performance to show a profit. Coincidentally, that’s about the same edge that the average ‘American Style’ (the one with 0 and 00)  roulette table has over the player on any spin.

So in head to head format, we have to ask ourselves if we think we can make better decisions than another player, and be right at least 55.5% of the time. If we believe that we can do that, we should play as many head-to-heads as possible – to infinity. Another way of thinking about this asking ourselves how much of an edge we have over the casual player or user of a DFS site or app. So, we can also say that if we believe we have a  5.5% edge over the average player then we are breakeven at DFS.  If we can truthfully say, or even better, demonstrate this with data, that our edge exceeds this breakeven point, then we can state  that 5.5% + our additional winrate = our edge over the field at that buy-in level, if the sample size is large enough.

You will find that with enough volume, competition will tend to trend towards an increase in the higher buy-in head-to-heads. That is, in general, when there is more money at stake. Against these types of players, your ‘edge’ can be blunted, or erode altogether. There are plenty of players who can show a profit at $1 games who get crushed by the field at the $5 entry level. As the buy-in increases, you will see an increase in the number of more advanced players, who may be using basic tools like excel spreadsheets and implementing their own custom built models for projecting sports performance.

They may also be using advanced analytical software, and algorithms to generate and enter hundreds of lineups in a fraction of a second.  This is not as big of an issue in a head to head contest, but becomes a significant threat to the casual user in ‘multi-entry’ events. A skilled player entering 500 lineups into a contest has a higher cumulative chance of ‘winning’ these type of events than someone entering a lone lineup, even when controlling for skill – taking it out of the equation completely.

Think of a raffle in which there are 5,000 tickets. You hold one ticket, and someone else holds 500 for the same event. This ‘raffle’ is an example of a competition based on pure luck. Your odds are 1 in 5,000 – .02% or less than one half of one percent! Now, compare this to your opponent’s odds at 500 in 5,000 – or 10%.That is why it is important to know if you have an edge, and if that edge is growing or diminishing over time.

To end by putting this frankly – if you only played head to head games for a lifetime, and won around 55.5% of those games, the same raw winrate as an American Style roulette wheel – you would not make any money at all! Forget about opportunity cost – DFS may not be so easy, after all!

 

The Great Equalizer: Pump Up The Volume

Posted on by dasdad

Spinal_Tap_-_Up_to_Eleven (1)

“These Go To 11” – Nigel Tufnel, Spinal Tap

In DFS, we can never know our true win rate in advance – we can only deconstruct it once the dust has settled. The good news is, we can get closer to it though. This can be achieved by increasing volume, or playing a higher number of games.

As a simple example, let’s say that you put together a lineup that ranks within the 95th percentile, so you’ve done better than 95 out of 100 players. You could STILL theoretically play 10 head-to-head games and lose them ALL! This is the nature of a thing called – variance.

Well wait a second here, you made a lineup which was better than 95% of the other players and LOST! That doesn’t seem to be very fair at all! Unfortunately, you are suffering from a common affliction –  small sample size.

After all, you may flip a fair coin heads/tails and it may come up heads 3 times in a row, 5 times, or yes, even 10. But 3 million times in a row? (Unless of course, you are former Harvard student, Professor and current Stanford professor Persi Diaconis)  A smarter decision than playing 10 expensive games may be to play 100 or even 1,000 games at lower stakes. Doing so will get you closer to your theoretical true win rate and broaden your sample size significantly.

If you go one step further than most and take a moment to post the games yourself using the ‘create’ panel, and utilize the opponent limiting tab on DraftKings, it should diversify your opponent pool in such a way that it reduces variance.

Skill vs. Luck: In Search of Separating the Two

Posted on by dasdad

What is skill?
As defined by Merriam-Webster:

skill

noun

: the ability to do something that comes from training, experience, or practice

 

a :  the ability to use one’s knowledge effectively and readily in execution or performance

 

b :  dexterity or coordination especially in the execution of learned physical tasks

3
:  a learned power of doing something competently :  a developed aptitude or ability <languageskills>

 

 

What is luck?

As defined by Merriam-Webster:

luck

: the things that happen to a person because of chance : the accidental way things happen without being planned

: good fortune : good luck

: success in doing or getting something

The problem with Daily Fantasy Sports is that it is not binary. That is to say, there’s never a time in any sport, in any given week, where we can say that someone’s lineup was 100% luck, or 100% skill. Ultimately, each individual will determine that proprietary mix by lineup lock  in deciding how much time and effort they are willing to put into the research process. The only other factors that you can control are the types of games you choose, at times the opponents you choose, and the volume that you play (turning it up, turning it down). There are times when either skill or luck will dominate and are times it will appear as though neither does.

Take the NFL for example – if you picked the exact optimal lineup, that is, the lineup which is projected to score the most points given the player pool – you have done the best that you can.  How did you arrive at your choices? Are you utilizing reliable data? Are you coming to conclusions as the result of a solid, winning process in the long run? If the answer is yes, congratulations! But, it doesn’t guarantee a winner, especially over the short term.

Even someone doing their homework in the example above still has to contend with luck. Take for example Week 10 in the NFL DFS competitions on Draftkings.

If you had identified the key players who were in good spots to put up a ton of fantasy points, you may have keyed in on the Pittsburgh Steelers and found an opportunity in their Running Back, D’Angelo Williams. Mr. Williams had an eye popping performance projection against one of the weakest rushing defenses in the league, the the Cleveland Browns. Other team dynamics also came into play, as Mr. Williams was backing up starting star running back L’Aveon Bell, who recently broke his leg and was out for the season, assuming a higher percentage of the overall workload. Also starting in this game was Mr. Landry, who was filling in for a freshly re-injured Ben Roethlisberger, who had been carted off the field during the previous game with an injury.

Big Ben was not expected to play at all, and did not start the game. In the first few minutes of the contest, however, Landry was knocked out, Ben came in, and proceeded to put on an aerial display as only he can – throwing for 300+ yards. The change in quarterback was totally unanticipated by the market. Everyone who had banked on D’Angelo Williams having a breakout game (40% ownership) was disappointed while those who had entered a Big Ben lineup on a lark, throwing a daily fantasy ‘hail mary’ with their lineup, flew up the scoreboards in every event they were entered into.

This is a clear case of luck (good and bad!), and risk vs. reward. It is also why anticipating player ownership is very important in DFS and should not be ‘leaked’ prior to lineup, as we talked about in previous blogs. Having a starting QB get knocked out of an NFL game to have the backup QB come into the game in relief is not exactly a ‘black swan’ type event. Having a starting QB on the bench who is injured, but healthy enough to suit up and play if needed isn’t either – but when these worlds collide, and the backup, who started in place of the number one guy gets hurt and the franchise quarterback ‘starter’ is required to go into the game, and stays in for the entirety of the game?Now, that’s rare.

DFS and Its Utility as an Entertainment Product

Posted on by dasdad

You will hear the owners of DFS sites constantly quipping about skill, but a close second is the fact that the majority of players view their offering on sites like DraftKings and Fanduel as an entertainment product.

I thought about this blog after watching the new Bond movie – Spectre. I paid for my ticket, enjoyed the movie, and afterwards, left relatively satisfied. I did not leave the theater with anything but the stub in my pocket. And that was ok. I had just consumed an entertainment product.

This is how the vast majority of users consumer daily fantasy sports. Focusing on the ‘entertainment value’ is of key importance for the DFS community because there has to be an aura that it is fun to play, even if you don’t win. The fact is that more often than not more people will lose than win. That’s just the math side of this business.

What is harder to calculate in the enjoyment derived from these games by the players, win lose or draw. This idea is very similar to the theory of utility discussed in economics. How many ‘utils’ did an individual derive from watching Red Zone on Sunday? It is always a subjective measure.

What is more tangible are the fiscal losses incurred and emotional effects of losing on players of any game – of skill, or otherwise. One of the more responsible things to do would be to warn others to consider their ‘utility bill’. Gambling addiction is real and there are resources available to help ensure that your ‘utility bill’ doesn’t get too high!

I’ve included a few below. Please game responsibly, or not at all!

http://www.ncpgambling.org/programs-resources/resources/

http://www.helpguide.org/articles/addiction/gambling-addiction-and-problem-gambling.

NATIONAL PROBLEM GAMBLING HELPLINE

1-800-522-4700

FACE/OFF: Coming to the Realization That Your Face is Not Always the Best Bet to Represent Your Brand on Social Media

Posted on by dasdad

Early on in the semester, I had a change of heart, and more importantly (sometimes!) in thought. After using a picture of my face to represent myself on twitter for over 2 months….I felt it was time for a change. Here I will detail some of the reasoning behind my swap and consider the thought process behind using your face to represent your brand.

The industry I am covering is arguably one of the most dynamic which exists today. We are in the ‘wild west era’ because although fantasy sports has been around for decades, it is only now we are really seeing it in a concentrated form where money, real profit and loss are concerned. Initially wary of using my face to represent my social media brand because my day job is in an area which frowns upon any sort of risk taking, real or perceived impropriety, or involvement in anything that could be considered gambling – I felt that showing up on social media media as a ‘person’ was important to establish rapport with an audience. It is a unique challenge to try and separate your personal  views and quirks from that of your brand – and experience that shift where you begin to be able to distance yourself from your ego and realize that often the person, or face, behind the brand – is not the most effective spokesperson for it, especially in some areas. In others, it might be the best possible solution! ‘It depends’, especially in social media!

dailydolla_1442243092_140

Initially, I felt the recent picture of myself aligned well with the brand portrayed the state of the industry. Still in it’s very raw, formative stages, shrouded in a bit of that murky mystery which leaves customers and fans wanting to hear more. But alas, I don’t think brands are built on furry faces alone! Enter the ‘Daily Dolla’ logo which after some tweaking accurately reflects the feelings of anxiety, triumph and disaster players have when watching a live sporting event which is augmented by action in Daily Fantasy Sports contests.

tZteq_K8.jpg

Changing to the Daily Dolla image allowed me to develop more consistency between my social media accounts, and unify my brand.

Since swapping out to a logo consistent with how your dollar might feel if it could reflect its emotion upon being wagered in a DFS contest, my brand has been much more successful. However, I cannot necessarily attribute this to a profile image alone. If I had to guess the biggest factor in the growth or success of any brand on social media, I would have to say that content is king.

If you can provide value in one form or another to an audience – you will become a go-to member of that social media community. What is troubling is there was no way to continue using my personal photo as a representative of the brand in tandem with the new image, so it is impossible to tell if I would have fared better or worse, by using a different profile image or ‘logo’ in order to represent the brand!

Mandatory Sentences: Building a Book of Best Practices for Harvard Art Museums

Posted on by dasdad

Developing social media best practices for the Harvard Art Museum has presented a unique challenge for our team. This is because just about any event, building name, or organization that begins the word ‘Harvard’ must contend with an overarching, relatively well established brand.

This brand says ‘I’m smart, I’m serious, I’m studious’ and is so powerful that graduates have come to call it – the ‘H-bomb’.

So, how does one go about creating a fun, inclusive, and engaging set of social media best practices?  I harken back to  our last class, in which our Social Media Management Professor Dr. Leila Samii and TA Bridget Franciscovich had us brainstorm some DO’s and and DONT’s for social media.

Some of the ones I felt could be applied to the Harvard Art Social Media Best Practices are as follows:

Dare Your Audience

Dare your audience to go above and beyond – rent or borrow a piece of art, take a selfie with their favorite piece and share it with friend! Have them write an essay about what a piece of art means to them personally and enter it in a contest – best essay wins a prize (or a membership)!

Connect With Members

Measure what they consume and offer them more of it! Do they enjoy film showings, small workshops based around artists or themed-based exhibitions and art celebrations? Tap into what they are into and bring them more of it – or provide it in different flavors!

Drive Engagement 

Along the lines of the architect of Harvard Art Museums latest renovation, Renzo Piano – show your members and the public at large that you believe in transparency and openness. Facilitate conversations and comments around pieces of art to encourage visits to the museum and convert web traffic into foot traffic.

Tout Events

When you put together events, let the world know! You never know just who you might attract. Oprah has made several visits to Memorial Hall…what’s to say she wouldn’t love to stop by the Harvard Art Museums on her way in or out of town?

Give Followers/Friends the Spotlight

Highlight more activities or user engagement, for example – the following tweet:

HAMS

By tracking and displaying this activity in real time, you can leverage the power of supporters, students and other stakeholders interested in the Harvard Art Museums and fulfill the mission and vision of the institution!

 

Develop social media best practices for a brand. What are some tactics a brand could use for successful social media?

In Solitude,We Trust (E)

Posted on by dasdad

Today we attempted Dr. Leila Samii‘s #solitudechallenge. The goal was to totally unplug for 30 minutes and document the result.

As I began the challenge, I felt happy to be doing ‘nothing’ for a half hour. Focusing on freeing up time for thought and reflection rather than action seemed terribly to me foreign at this point, and was a welcome digression from the buzzing device which is so often holstered to my hip. I chuckled to myself thinking that despite its reliable, steady stream of interruption and annoyance it is usually the more innocuous of the two things that are holstered there.

All of a sudden my peace was shattered with the monotone, robotic announcement “Street cleaning, no parking on the even side of the road, you will be tagged and towed”. Do not be distracted, I thought, focus on the breath and relax. Sure enough, shortly after this the doors to the community center nearby flung open and children let their presence be known. As their parents arrived, there commenced a symphony of slamming car doors, crying and fighting children, desperately resisting being deposited at the daycare center down the street by their mothers and fathers.

I tried to refocus, and relax again. Focus on your breathing, I said again – this time under my breath.

About a minute later, it was time for bulk truck drop off at the food pantry. As the box truck backed into its space at the community center, the usual ‘beep beep beep’ rang out, shattering my brief moment of solitude and silence.

The biggest thing I learned from a real effort in pursuing solitude is that in the heart of any major city – you are never alone – even if you would sometimes prefer it so.

 

 

What’s the deal with Social Media Policy, anyway? (D)

Posted on by dasdad

Here are a few simple rules, that may save an employee, or an employer – make social media a fiesta – not a fiasco!

DO:

THINK BEFORE YOU POST!

 

DON’T:

BE A FOOL!

Fabricate

Obstruct

Obfuscate

Lie

Finally, Remember:
“Never write down anything you wouldn’t want on the front page of the New York Times or disclose information that is personal, private or shared in any kind of perceived confidence!”

Want to learn more about the power of Social Media?

Check out this week’s ‘Social Media Spotlight’ Share from youtube!

 

 

 

xx

P-R-E-P-A-R-E TO SUCCEED ON SOCIAL MEDIA! (C)

Posted on by dasdad

Position Yourself

Think about who you want to be on social media. Also consider WHERE you want to be, and what you want to be know for! Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, Pinterest? Skiing, Baking Cakes, Computer Programming? Pick something you are passionate about!

Research Your Audience

Who is your audience? Seeing who is listening can shift your perspective. Don’t be disappointed if your initial target market doesn’t end up being your biggest consumer of your content. Start with what you have and try to grow your brand without letting your message become so muddled that you lose your voice.

Engage With Influencers

By engaging in thoughtful communication with influencers you can speed up your learning process and exhibit your interest in a subject. Others viewing this interaction may attribute this to a higher clout, or command of your particular area.

 
Push Out, and Interconnect Your Content

Remember to link to content across all of your social media channels. Although a somewhat creepy metaphor – think of yourself as a spider weaving a web between your social media channels, looking to capture as much relevant traffic as your brand can handle.

Attack Problems/Crises

Don’t let problems fester. A quick, but mediocre response to a problem often is rated higher by users than a delayed, above average or even perfect one. It is ok to know what you don’t know about a problem or crisis, and make decisions in real time without having perfect information. In fact, there will be many times you will be required to do so.
Respond to Praise

Many folks on social media are great about addressing problems and issues which may affect their brand, but forget to acknowledge positive comments and notes from consumers of their content. A courteous ‘thank you’ or ‘you’re welcome’ is still effective, and can even be a suprise today!

Earn Their Trust

Here is where consistency comes into play. If you can demonstrate that you are effective and providing value to the consumers of your content, and keeping up with the guidlines above on a day-to-day, week-to-week basis, you can build a buffer of ‘social capital’, and gain time and the benefit of the doubt should something go wrong down the line.

 

 

By following these guidelines for social media strategy,  you can set yourself up for SUCCESS!

How would someone in your industry prepare for success on social media? What should be some steps to take for preparation of a social media strategy?
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Who is influencing the DFS Landscape? (B)

Posted on by dasdad

The big shots in the DFS community, the talking heads which are well known, include the following individuals and groups. From a social media perspective, each of these guys and gals bring different skillets to the table and present their knowledge and passion for DFS to the table through podcasts, radio programs, and twitter/facebook feeds.

EXAMPLE A Adam Levitan @adamlevitan

Adam is in his seventh season covering football for Rotoworld. He won the Fantasy Sports Writers Association award for Best series in both 2009 and 2011, and ESPN’s overall fantasy football title in 2000. He began focusing on DFS in 2014, contributing columns and on-air work to Rotogrinders. For Adam, the sun rises and sets with his miniature Goldendoodle named Gerri.

EXAMPLE B Amy Lawrence @ALawRadio

A well-traveled veteran and pioneer of sports radio and television, Amy Lawrence is the host of CBS Sports Radio’s late-night program, “After Hours with Amy Lawrence.” The show can be heard weekdays from 2:00-6:00 AM, ET on the nation’s largest 24/7 major-market radio network. Listeners also tune in via cbssportsradio.com and the Radio.com app.Prior to joining CBS in January 2013, Lawrence spent nine years at ESPN Radio where she was the only regular female host. Local radio stops include Providence, RI; Lebanon, NH; Rochester, NY; and Oklahoma City, OK, where she was the first female in state history to pilot her own sports radio talk show.

Lawrence has handled basketball play-by-play and color duties for various radio and TV outlets over the past 15 years, and served as the voice of University of Hartford women’s hoop for six seasons (2008-14). She recently called her first two games on the Westwood One Radio Network, including an NCAA Tournament Regional Final.

She graduated from Messiah College with bachelor’s degrees in Communications & Accounting, before earning her master’s degree in TV & Radio from Syracuse University. Lawrence was recently honored as one of The 100 Most Important Sports Talk Radio Hosts in America by Talkers Magazine for 2015, and was the only female personality to make the list.

She is a native of Concord, NH, and currently resides in New Jersey.

Amy has been able to leverage her success as a popular sportscaster and radio host into a podcast which covers fantasy sports. You can find her interviewing some of the other influencers on this list, and her record in terms of predicting winners and losers in DFS can stand up with the best of them.

EXAMPLE C Al Zeidenfeld @AlZeidenfeld

Al Zeidenfeld, founder of Daily Fantasy Bootcamp, has been playing DFS since April 2012. “Al Smizzle” is a DraftKings Pro and won the 2013 RotoGrinders Tournament Player of the Year Award, and has also been a fixture on the Grinders Live advice show. 

Wheras Amy is an example of someone who took her talents from the mainstream into the world of daily fantasy – Al has taken his role as an analyst at Rotogrinders and leveraged that to bring daily fantasy to the mainstream. He is now featured on a daily fantasy segment which runs on sports network giant ESPN, and appears on their blog.

EXAMPLE D Rotogrinders @RotoGrinders

“RotoGrinders.com is the home of the daily fantasy sports community. Our content, rankings, member blogs, promotions and forum discussion all cater to the players that like to create a new fantasy team every day of the week. Our goal is to help all of our members make more money playing daily fantasy sports!”

Rotogrinders generates a ton of content around daily fantasy sports. Primarily this takes the form of live video casts and archived video snippets from their ‘GrindersLive’ Studio. From these studios come some strange, at times unsavory, but also fairly entertaining guys who give their opinions on who will do well and who will do, well, not so well in the upcoming slate of games. They live and die with their predictions, which are often echoed and/or ridiculed throughout the social media sphere, especially on twitter.

EXAMPLE E Peter Jennings @CSURAM88

Peter has been playing daily fantasy sports professionally since 2012 and was the first winner of a six figure prize that same year, when he won the FFFC for $150,000. He has grossed over $10 million in prizes, and also won the first live DraftKings in Atlantis for $1 million dollars in August of 2014.

Peter has transcended his role as a very big winner in the DFS space and reinvested in himself by starting his own company, which seeks to simplify the number crunching that is required to read between the lines of sports statistics and turn a profit even with increasingly high levels of ‘rake’ – or money taken out of the prize pool by companies like Draft Kings and Fan Duel each time someone enters a contest.

So, we can see some very interesting alliances here between influencers in the space and established brands. Even traditional media is co-opting some of these influencers as fantasy sports become more mainstream. The interesting thing is that the more attention daily fantasy sports draws – the more scrutiny and ire it will also draw from those who do not understand it, or have a ‘poor initial user experience’. (See: losing, losing, and losing some more).